The Forex Robot Blog

The MACD indicator is one of the most useful tools of FX technical analysis but it is not usually well understood. This is a pity because many traders could probably use it more effectively if they understood it better.

The letters of its name stand for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. It is true that the name sounds rather complicated and unfortunately this is often enough to put people off from wanting to know more. So they only use the very simplest applications without understanding the power of the tool itself.

Like most forex tools, this indicator is used to show us when a new trend is forming, so that we can get in on it and make money. The MACD does this by plotting the relationship between two moving averages.

Settings

The settings are usually expressed as three numbers. Commonly you might see 12,26,9.

Traders using FX technical analysis often make the mistake of thinking that the first number on the MACD indicator (12 in this example) relates to the faster moving average line, the second number (26) relates to the slower moving average line and the third number (9) relates to the histogram at the bottom of the chart. That is not quite correct.

In fact the first two numbers (12 and 26) indicate the number of periods used to calculate two moving averages. The faster moving average line, which is often green on the chart, measures the moving average of the difference between the 12 period and the 26 period moving averages.

The slower moving average line is often red on the chart. This line plots the average of the last 9 (or whatever is the third number) periods of the faster moving average line. It usually shows smoother curves because its effect is to smooth out the fast moving average line.

Divergence And Convergence

The histogram that measures convergence and divergence is the series of blocks stretching above and below an axis near the bottom of the chart. This simply records the difference between the faster and slower moving averages.

As the two moving averages separate from each other (diverge), the blocks of the histogram will become longer. As they get closer (converge), the blocks become shorter. If the two lines cross, the blocks of the histogram will switch from stretching above the line to dropping below it or vice versa.

So the histogram measures the convergence and divergence of the two moving averages. And that is why this tool for FX technical analysis is called a Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD indicator.

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The stochastic indicator is an oscillator that enables you to see at a glance the momentum of the market. Momentum is the pressure or weight behind the current trend. It is based on the idea that while prices are rising, the closing price will tend to be higher than it would be if the market was stable. Equally, when prices are falling, the closing price will tend to be low. From this assumption the oscillator measures when a trend is considered to have reached its limit and is about to turn.

The actual calculations are complex but fortunately you do not need to do them because most trading software will do this automatically for you. This means that you should be able to access the indicator plotted on a chart in your forex brokerage account.

The stochastic indicator will give you two lines that usually run fairly close together:

- the line called %K gives a comparison of the last closing price to previous closing prices.

- the line called %D smooths out the %K line and can be used as a signal line.

So what does the stochastic indicator actually tell you, and how can you use it to make money?

Using it is quite simple. It gives a signal that a market is overbought or oversold. In other words, it will tell you when a trend should be about to reverse, according to the basis of their calculations.

If both lines are high, this is a signal that the market is overbought. If you are trading forex on the basis of this indicator you would put in an order to sell.

Conversely if both lines are low, they are telling you that the market is oversold and you could put in an order to buy.

Keep in mind that you should not trade on the basis of one indicator alone, but always seek confirmation from at least one other.

You will normally have horizontal lines on your charts marking the high and low points for you so that you can see at a glance when to act. In many cases you can alter the position of these lines to suit your trading style. The most common settings are 70, 75 or 80 for the high line and 30, 25 or 20 for the low line.

If your settings are closer (70 and 30) you will want the stochastic lines to stay above or below your trigger lines for a longer time before you trade. If your settings are at 80 and 20, any movement above them would be a strong signal. Check this out with your own backtests to decide when you would be comfortable putting in an order.

Many currency traders also regard the relative positions of the two stochastic indicator lines as a signal for forex trading. They would buy when %K crosses %D line from below going upwards, or from above going downwards.

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If you want to make money from the forex market then you will need to know foreign exchange basics. You may have a good mathematical understanding of trends and charts but it is also important to understand the foundation on which the currency trading markets are based. If you do not, you could enter a trade at exactly the wrong time.

The forex market is heavily influenced by national and international news and current affairs. This especially relates to financial news but other major events can have an effect too. These may be expected or unexpected.

For example a disaster such as a major earthquake or terrorist attack is usually unpredictable but could affect currency values. There is not much you can do about this except always to be sure to use stop losses.

A more predictable event would be the announcement that the Olympic Games will be held in a certain country. This could strengthen confidence in that country’s economy and lead to a rise in the value of its currency. At the same time the other major contenders for the Games may suffer a fall in currency values. So it is important for a trader to know when an announcement like that is expected, and which countries are involved.

Similar situations are the financial reports that are released almost daily in many countries. Less regularly, but usually foreseeable, there will also be announcements about interest rates, inflation, gross domestic product and other matters of national economic importance.

Try to avoid trading on rumors. You might see news reports or hear other traders speculating that an announcement will go one way or the other. Do not trade on the basis that they are right. First because they still could be wrong, and second because if it is such a sure thing, the price has probably already changed to take into account the rumors and you will not gain much even if they are right.

Do not forget that you are always trading on two nation’s currencies, not just one. If your own country is one of them, you will have much easier access to financial reports for that currency and it is easy to forget to check on events in the second country. This is particularly true for Americans because dollar news tends to dominate the forex alerts anyway. It is even more true if you are trading the dollar against a minor currency. You may have to take positive steps to ensure that your information is not one-sided.

Even if you are just beginning as a forex trader, it is important to keep in mind these aspects of fundamental analysis for the forex market. Exiting the market before any major announcement is usually the best move for a beginner. As you become more experienced you may develop a system based on this type of forfundamental analysis, but it is important to become familiar with all of the foreign exchange basics first.

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When you have read a few forex books or visited a few online currency trading forums, you will quickly realize that there are almost as many different forex trading strategies as there are traders. People have their own style; but more than that, in currency trading there are many different ways of making money.

So there is not one top forex system that you must follow to profit from foreign exchange trading. However, there are some guidelines that apply to the way in which you approach your trading and these are true for just about anybody. I call them the golden rules of trading.

1. Follow The Trends

Most forex trading strategies and systems focus on identifying trends and there is a good reason for that. Whether the trend shows a rise or a fall, get in to go long or short as appropriate and do not go against it. Bucking the trend will see you losing money fast.

2. Safeguard Your Funds

Risking too much on one trade has been the downfall of many a promising trader. Never risk a lot of money on a single trade, however strong your feelings may be that this one cannot go wrong. They can all go wrong.

So how much do you risk? It depends on your strategy and how much it matters to you if you lose all of your funds, but never more than 5% of your balance. 2% per trade is a safer option.

Some people maintain the percentage as their funds increase, so that they gradually risk more in real terms on each trade. That is up to you but consider carefully before you do this. When you have more money in your account, you will probably be more unhappy if it is wiped out, so you may want to keep the same position size (reducing your percentage risk) as your funds increase.

3. Set Goals For Each Trade

Have a clear profit goal for each trade, so that before you enter, you have already decided when you will take the profit and close. Do not get greedy and try to stay in there for more and more.

In the same way, if it turns bad, do not try to hold on in the hope that the market will turn back your way. Cut your losses and get out. Using stop losses to do this automatically is a very wise strategy.

Those are the first three golden rules of currency trading: the guidelines that can help you develop profitable forex trading strategies, whatever your system.

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There is a wide choice of foreign currency trading software for the forex market. When you are just getting started with forex trading you will need to shop around to find the platform that will suit you best. But what types of program are available and what features should you look for?

Online brokerage accounts are always run through forex software. Your broker may either give you access to a platform that runs on their server or you may have something that runs on your own computer.

Brokers may have their own custom forex trading platform or they may use a generic platform which they can have tailored to their company. This should provide you with many features including a wide variety of charts, tools and analytical capabilities that can indicate changing patterns and trends in the price movements. There may also be a forex alert feature or a running commentary on the financial news.

In some cases you can customize your desktop view of the software. This is more useful than you may realize at first. It can save a lot of time to have your preferred settings or combination of tools and charts load automatically when you log in.

If you choose to use automated foreign currency trading software, otherwise known as a forex robot, this will need to connect to your brokerage account to make the trades. Most robots use the platform etatrader 4.

If you are running a program yourself, be aware that this usually means that your computer must be switched on and connected to the internet at all times while you have open trades, stop losses or orders to open a trade at a certain point. If your internet connection is often broken by storms or other factors, or if your internet provider automatically cuts the connection any time there is no activity from your machine for more than a certain time, you will not be able to trade effectively unless your instructions have already been passed to your brokerage account and are stored there.

The software should be simple to access and use. Clear instructions plus an FAQ page or manual that you can go to for reference are essential. Beyond that there should be some kind of support, either live or by email, when you need more detailed help or cannot find the answer to your question in the documentation.

Forex trading is risky and you can make losses as well as gains. In this very fast moving market it is vital to have all of the information that you need at your fingertips, plus the power to make your selected trades fast. Automated foreign currency trading software can help you massively and you need the best that you can get your hands on.

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A forex trading forum is a popular place for beginners to go when they are just getting into forex trading. There are many internet forums and you can discuss any aspect of currency trading there. But should you trust the answers that you get? Are these online discussion sites really a valuable source of information, or just a drain on your time?

Forums began in the time of the Roman empire. At that time they were a physical space in the middle of the city a little like a market place but without a market. The men of the city would meet there to hear and debate matters of importance such as politics and the law.

Since then the word has come to mean any location or group in which discussion takes place and opinions can be aired. On the internet, it has gradually taken over from the term ‘bulletin board’ which was used for the old style of sites where members could post messages. The new format of forums is much easier to navigate and people can more easily get involved in discussions than they could on bulletin boards.

This means that it is very easy to either start or join in a discussion. If you have a question you can post it and you are almost certain to see replies. For some aspects of foreign exchange trading this can be very useful.

For example if you are thinking of investing money, time or both in a forex system, ebook, robot or training program, it can be very useful to check a forex trading forum for reviews and feeback from people who have already used the product that you are considering. Use the search facility to see if there is already a thread about the product and if not, start one by asking if anyone has experience of the product. Feedback from other users can help you decide whether something would be suitable for you or not.

It is best to find several different opinions before making up your mind. Remember that one person’s opinion is only one view and you might not agree with that person. They might have been looking for something different, or they might have had unusually good or bad luck with the product. If you find a lot of different opinions it is much more helpful. You can see what kind of person has a good experience with the product and what kind of person has a bad experience.

If you have questions about trading, a currency trading forum can be useful too. But again you need to think about who is replying to your question. You might not necessarily want to trust everybody.

Sometimes different users will disagree with each other because they have different ways of making money with FX. There are many different methods and when you get conflicting advice it can be confusing. So do not be distracted by all the people who will tell you that their way is best.

It is very easy to sound like an expert in a place where nobody knows you. All a person has to do is to make a lot of posts and sound experienced. In fact a high post count often just means that the person likes hanging out in the forum and does more talking than trading. Some users may never even have traded for real at all, but only used demo accounts.  Remember that you do not know who these people are. You should not automatically trust everybody’s opinion.

Finally, take care that you are not becoming an addict yourself. It is very easy to waste a lot of time following random discussions and chatting. Have a clear purpose when you enter a forex trading forum and leave when you have found what you were looking for.

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Among the many types of technical analysis available to forex traders, the single most useful and popular are probably candlestick charts. These were originally developed in Japan during the 18th century by a prominent commodity trader who used them to chart the fluctuations in the price of rice. For this reason they are often known as Japanese candlestick charts, and many of the patterns that they form have Japanese names.

Simple line graphs plotting the price of a commodity at regular intervals in time had been used for centuries, but traders were in need of something that could plot more variables within a two dimensional graph. The bar chart showing the opening, high, low and closing prices of a commodity was useful and helped traders to predict future price movements in a more reliable way than line charts, but candlestick charts were even better.

They were introduced to the American stock market and from there to the worldwide financial markets by Charles Dow at the beginning of the 20th century. Dow was the founder of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of the Dow Jones company.

Candlestick Formation

The chart is made up of a series of ‘candlesticks’ which typically have a chunky body with vertical lines stretching up from the top (the upper shadow or wick) and bottom (the lower shadow or wick). The different points measure the differential in prices over a certain period of time, which might be 5 minutes, 15 minutes or longer.

The top of the wick is the highest point reached during the time period and the lowest point of the lower wick is the low. The top and bottom of the body are the opening and closing prices. If price rose during the period the body will be white (or green or blue if colored). The bottom of the body marks the opening price and its top marks the close. If the price fell during the period the prices are the other way around and to show this at a glance the body will be black (or red if colored).

How To Use Candlestick Charts In Forex Trading

A chart showing 5 or 15 minute candles over a period of several hours can provide the forex trader with many patterns on which he can base a system for determining when a trend is developing. For example, when the candle body is white or green and higher than the preceding candles, it indicates that buyers are very bullish. When it is black or red and lower than the preceding candles, it indicates that buyers are very bearish.

Being able to see these implications at a glance is vital in the fast moving forex markets where trading decisions often need to be made in a split second. So candlestick charts are one of the most useful visual aids for any forex trader.

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Forex mini accounts are ideal for just about anybody who is starting out in forex trading. You would have to be very rich or very confident to start right out with a standard account if you are a retail trader (i.e. somebody trading on their own account from home). A mini account lets you get started without risking so much money and this makes it a very attractive option for most people.

Mini forex trading accounts generally allow you to trade with just one tenth of the normal lot size. This usually means 10,000 units of currency instead of 100,000.

Of course you do not have to have this much in your account. Currency trading works with leverage. If you are using 100 times leverage then you need $100 to control $10,000 in your mini account or $1,000 to control $100,000 for a standard account.

$100 or 100 units of other currency per trade is enough for most people to commit to a trade when they are starting out and that is why the mini trading account is so attractive.

The pip size is also usually smaller in a mini account. Pips are units in which you will measure your profits, losses and costs (the spread). Their dollar value can vary depending on the currency pair that you are trading, the lot size and other conventions of your broker, but a common standard pip size is $10 and mini pip size is $1.

Some brokers are now quoting prices to 5 decimal places which technically would make one pip 0.00001 of the quoted price, but we will continue to use the standard 4 decimal place pip for this example.

So if you have a standard forex account you can expect to put up $1,000 on each trade, be involved in trading lots of $100,000 and measure your profits in $10 units.

If you have a forex mini account you can expect to commit $100 on each trade, be involved in trading lots of $10,000 and measure your profits in $1 units.

Of course you can set stop losses so that you do not have to risk all of the money that is committed to the trade. But your losses will be measured in terms of pips so these too will be 10 times greater in the standard account.

If you are successful and your fund grows, you may want to move up to trading greater sums. You can still do this in your mini account by trading more than one lot at a time. So if you want to trade a standard lot size you would just trade 10 mini lots. This has the advantage of still giving you the ability for fine control of your stops because your pip size is still just $1.

The standard account used to be all that was available before so many people had powerful home computers and high speed internet connections that made it possible for the ordinary person to trade from home. The forex mini account is a development that has opened up the market to people who have the technology but not the money for standard currency trading investment.

If you want to risk even less of your money, you could look at forex micro accounts which allow you to make even smaller trades. Be aware though that the spread is often a little high and you might find it difficult to profit with a micro account. It may be better to use a demo account until your confidence builds and then open a forex mini account for real trading.

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Foreign exchange brokers that cater to the retail investor are springing up all of the time all over the world. What should you look for in selecting a forex broker and how can you be sure you are getting the best?

Everybody starts out currency trading with hopes of having big returns and some of the publicity that you will see will make this sound almost inevitable. In fact of course currency trading is full of risk and many people get their fingers burnt. You could easily lose your startup funds, especially if you start trading for real too soon.

Be sure that you are signing up with a broker who states the risks clearly. When you are starting out you should probably look for a company that will protect you from margin calls by automatically closing your trades if your funds become exhausted. Of course this is a bad situation that you will hope to avoid but it is better than finding you are committed to paying more than you had in the account.

Forex traders often work with 100, 200 or even 400 times leverage. This means that the funds in your account can control 100-400 times their own value. With $100 of the funds in your account you can trade lots of $10,000. So if something goes wrong and the price moves unexpectedly against you, you could be down by more than $100. You can put your own stop losses into place but it is useful to have a broker who will do this in case you forget one time.

Of course you also want to make sure that the brokerage company is honest and will not disappear with your money. If they have been around for a while or form part of a large, reputable company that is a good sign. Another valuable point to consider is whether they are members of any regulatory bodies. This may give you protection if the company goes out of business.

Foreign exchange brokers will offer you various services including charts and technical analysis through their software platform. It is important to know what charts you are likely to need not only for your current system but for other ways that you may want to trade in the future. Compare the charts provided by the different brokers. Think about how you would want to use and combine them and make sure that your chosen broker offers what you need.

You will also want to be sure about the reliability of the software. If it goes offline you could lose the chance to control a trade. Try to find feedback on forex forums or the company’s own forum if there is one, to check how satisfied users are with the reliability of the software platform and also the support provided. Forex is a 24 hour market during the business week and you should be able to get support 24 hours too.

Spread is something that most traders look at when selecting a brokerage account. This is the difference between the bid and ask prices and it is how forex brokers make their money. You may be tempted to go with a company because they offer a low spread but remember that it may not be permanent and probably does not apply to all currency pairs. Spread should not be your only or even your main consideration when considering foreign exchange brokers.

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Identifying and profiting from forex trends and patterns is the way that most forex traders make money. Your main aim when you are trading the foreign exchange market will be to identify a trend as it is forming and jump in so that you can profit from it.

Trends are very simple to see in hindsight when we look at a chart. A candlestick chart shows them most clearly but you can see them on any type of chart.

If you draw a line above the low points of the candlestick shadows while prices are generally rising you will see the slope of the uptrend. Similarly if you draw a line above the high points of the shadows while prices are generally falling, you will see the slope of the downtrend.

There are also sideways trends when the prices are fluctuating up and down between two points but not breaking beyond them. In this case the lines drawn above and below the shadows will be just about horizontal.

Where you have a horizontal line, you could expect a breakout going in one direction or the other eventually. Some traders will set up orders to enter the market when the price goes to a certain point either above or below the line.

Other traders will use sideways forex trends to indicate a change in the main movement of the prices. For example if the sideways pattern follows a pretty much regular upward movement, it may indicate resistance to the price moving any further. You could surmise that the upper line is a resistance line and a downturn will follow to bring the prices back within the band that is supported by the market.

Before using any of these methods to create a system, however, you should do extensive testing. Backtests will help you decide whether the system is worth investigating further. Then always run real time tests using a demo account before you back your system with real money. Remember that forex is very risky and even the best of systems have their failures or what may be called losing runs.

If trend lines are drawn correctly they can be just as accurate a way of predicting breakouts or major changes in the direction of price movements as any other method. However you have to be careful to be objective, especially when dealing with the real time market.

When we are waiting for certain conditions to be fulfilled so that we can place an order, it is tempting to jump the gun and assume that a pattern is forming when really it is too early to be sure. So watch out. When drawing lines for forex trends it is deceptively easy to draw what you want to have happen, instead of what is happening.

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